Contents – ACKNOWLEDGMENTS INTRODUCTION.3 Replacing Positivism A Quandary for Non-Positivists Explanation Confirmation Realism Changing Traditions PART ONE: Explanation CHAPTER ONE. Explanation: The Covering-Law Model The Covering-Law Model Goals for the Model The Stakes Are High The Metaphysical Argument Unanalyzed Causation New Models Causality and Relevance Testing, Prediction and Pseudo-Explanation The Fate of Qualitativeness: An Appendix CHAPTER Two. The Nature of Explanation The Autonomy of Causation Causation and Counterfactuals Causal Substitution Determinism Symptoms and Causes The Core Conception Excluding and Including Adequate Causal Description Causal Depth Depth as Necessity Depth as Priority The Unity of Explanation CHAPTER THREE. Applications Value-Freedom Methodological Individualism Functional Explanation Human Science/Natural Science The Structure of Theories Freedom of Explanation PART Two: Confirmation CHAPTER FOUR. Confirmation as Causal Comparison Ambiguities of Confirmation The Idea of Causal Comparison The Scope of Comparison The Sufficiency of Comparison The Requirement of Comparison Confirmation and Causality The Best Causal Account Level I Causal Checklists Extrapolators Interpreters Patterns and Depth Measures Level II Level III CHAPTER FIVE. Deductivism: Plain and with Simplicity Deductivism Defined Simple Deductivism The Irrelevance of Corroboration The Inadequacy of Bootstrapping Formal Simplicity: An Informal Account An Analysis of Simplicity The Perils of Deductivism CHAPTER SIX. The New Positivism Deriving Bayes' Theorem What Is Probability? The Classical Interpretation The Logical Interpretation The Frequency Interpretation The Best Bayesianism CHAPTER SEVEN. Anti-Bayes Non-Prediction Bayesian Replies The Return of Ad-Hocness The Inaccessibility of Theories Neglecting History Where's the Harm? Where's the Clarity? Probability and Desirability Risk Aversion Bad Bets and Good News The Burdens of Ignorance Conclusion PART THREE: Realism CHAPTER EIGHT. The Issue of Realism 351 Two Images of Reason 352 Redefining the Issue 356 Observability 359 The Scope of Realism 363 Realism and Reason 367 The Limits of Tolerance 372 Defending Realism 378 A Book-Length Argument 378 Realism, Truth and Justification 385 CHAPTER NINE. Learning from Anti-Realism 391 Failure after Failure? 399 Empirical Equivalence 419 Equivalence in Physics 431 Albert Einstein: Anti-Positivist 441 The Best Lesson 446 CHAPTER TEN. A Defense of Realism 448 Two Temperaments 448 An Anatomy of Agnosticism 450 Relying on Theories 453
The Many Cases for Realism 461 Microbe Hunting 465 From Molecular Hypothesis to Molecular Truth 470 Hesitation and Belief 482 Tolerance and Nonsense 485 The World and Words 493 Science: With and Without Foundations 497 The Dogmatism of Skepticism 506 CHAPTER ELEVEN. Quantum Reality 515 Quantum Effects and Alleged Consequences 522 Strict Instrumentalism 530 A Milder Doctrine 534 Toward Quantum Reality 541 Eigenvalues without Eigenstates 550 Real System Properties 552 Quantum Causation and Positivism 558 Momentum and Meaning 562 Quantum Meanings 569 Positivism and Quantum Meanings 583 Bell's Spins and Einstein's Moon 587 Quantum Physics and Modern Anti-Realism 599 Farewell 602 INDEX